First a pretty good explanation of the contested convention process.
Reince Priebus goes on ‘Hannity’ to provide insight on the rules.
As time and primary elections pass the likelihood of an contested convention increases.
As time and primary elections pass the likelihood of an contested convention increases. Particularly if John Kasich remains in the race. Given the current landscape it’s also likely Ted Cruz will close the delegate gap on Donald Trump. They will both be close. Kasich will be of no concern save holding a few delegates.
Hannity is correct in his assertion that there will be a revolt among republican voters if the party were to try and install a candidate that hasn’t won at least a substantial number of delegates in the primaries and the party knows it. I don’t think they would even try. That said there is a strong argument for Cruz even if Trump holds a delegate advantage on the first vote.
As stated in the video delegates choose the candidate. These delegates are all republicans first and foremost. They believe in the party and believe that the republican candidate should at least be a committed republican chosen by republicans. Their fear of revolt will end with that as a minimum standard.
By convention time there will have been more analysis of the primary voting in each state than anyone could stand. The argument made by Cruz will be the obvious better performance by Trump in open primary states. The case can be made that a portion of delegates awarded to Trump were awarded by democrat and independent voters. The evidence is strong given the record turnouts in these states for the republican primaries and the dismal turnout of democrats. Those are the states where it’s most plausible a delegate would be inclined to bolt after the first vote. After that first vote Trumps support will evaporate quicker than a sun shower in August. The next best logical place for that support to go would be to the candidate that carried the most support of the republican voting base.
By electing Cruz the delegates can satisfy the need to elect a candidate that is a party republican (whether they like it or not) and the most popular choice among REPUBLICANS. It is the republican convention after all.
In this crazy election cycle it’s nearly impossible to predict what’s going to happen but one thing remains true. Republican delegates aren’t stupid and the “party bosses” have lost credibility even among them. Cruz is not the perceived outsider that Trump is. Cruz is also not the most acceptable to the GOP establishment. He is however the compromise everyone may have to live with.